FILM
My preference: There Will Be Blood
My prediction: Atonement. It will take the split between Rudin's two films and win. See Grammy: Hancock, Herbie.
Who was robbed: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly is an awesome film, yet the original slate is a good one.
LEAD ACTOR:
My preference: Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
My prediction: Ditto--there's no one else who can mesmerize the way he does. He owns TWBB.
Who was robbed: James McAvoy was the best thing about Atonement. Those eyes! They should have their own award. He should be in the constellation instead of George Clooney. (See the comments below under Supporting Actor. Not sure where to categorize two of this year's fine performances).
LEAD ACTRESS:
My preference: Marion Cotillard, La vie en rose
My prediction: Ditto. She inhabited this role, physically, emotionally. She was Piaf. The only way Julie Christie wins is if voters recognize her 43-year span between statues. I really think her rudeness at the SAG Awards (thanking her fellow actors for their "tiny parts" in HER success) will cost Christie some votes. See also: Crowe, Russell, A Beautiful Mind.
Who was robbed: Amy Adams, Enchanted. What a charming performance, and not merely the B side of the record, as Blanchett's performace was as Elizabeth I.
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
My preference: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
My prediction: Bardem. Even his hair was serial-scary. And he was due for The Sea Inside.
Who was robbed: I really think that Gorden Pinsent from Away from Her needs to be recognized somewhere. Was it star or supporting? I think that Casey Affleck, although compelling, had a lead performance. Paul Dano completely surprised me in TWBB. From near-mute in Little Miss Sunshine to pulpit-pounding!
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
My preference: Amy Ryan, Gone, Baby Gone.
My prediction: Ruby Dee, American Gangster. I think we're tired of C. Blanchett's hype for a movie where Heath Ledger was overlooked. Linda Hunt's already done the gender crossover exquisitely in The Year of Living Dangerously. Amy Ryan's performance is going to be overlooked in view of Dee's long career/overdue accolade. Tilda Swinton is also making a very late charge. She was thorough, but she doesn't fit the long career/newcomer pattern that seems to define this category.
Who was robbed: Didn't anyone see Olympia Dukakis in Away from Her? Didn't anyone see Catherine Keener in Into the Wild? Any incarnation of Briony in Atonement could have made this category. All three were compelling.
DIRECTOR:
My preference: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
My prediction: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Who was robbed: Sean Penn did a great job in Into the Wild. Why was this movie almost completely snubbed?
WHAT NEEDS TO CHANGE: Add some new categories.
Best Ensemble, Drama: No Country for Old Men. Not a weak performance and Bardem was awesome.
Best Ensemble, Comedy: Juno.
Breakthroughs: Josh Brolin (Actor). Saoirse Ronan (Actress). Ben Affleck (Director).
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